Marcus Ginyard Gets It

If anything is abundantly clear, it is that Tar Heel Fan is a big fan of Marcus Ginyard.  I love the type of player he is, one that has defensive prowess and generally puts forth a great effort every time out.  I have also made no bones about the fact I think he should be the starting shooting guard in place of Wayne Ellington.  And if any of that were not enough, based on what he had to say to the N&O he could very well be the vocal leader this team needs:

But I do believe that last year’s team would beat this year’s team at this point in the season,” sophomore Marcus Ginyard said Tuesday. “I think that the attitude, the drive, the competitiveness was on another level last year. And that’s the thing that disappoints me, personally, the most

“It should have been a wake-up call against Gonzaga, it should have been a wake-up call at Virginia Tech, then it should have been a wake-up call against Virginia Tech, again,” said Ginyard, whose 24-5 team plays at Georgia Tech on Thursday.

“… Me, personally, I feel like it’s a now or never thing. I feel like that if this team doesn’t realize that’s what needs to happen, that’s what needs to be done right now, we’re going to end up with a lot of long sad faces the next couple of weeks.”

One of the more exciting aspects of his attitude here is that he will be with this team two more years and could be a huge part of UNC winning a national championship more so for what he brings in the intangibles department.  He is also absolutely correct about how this team should have responded to the previous losses and how they should approach the remaining games.  And I absolutely agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment: Now or never.

Now starts tomorrow night in Atlanta.

(Hat tip to reader Dan for pointing out the article)

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26 Responses to Marcus Ginyard Gets It

  1. williamodouglas says:

    He can’t shoot well enough, not that Ellington is burning the house down from outside either.

    For all the guff McCants took, he usually delivered and he also served as a focal point for the other guys on the team. Most great Carolina teams have had a great offensive swingman: Scott, Davis, Wood, Jordan, Williams, Stackhouse, Carter, McCants.

    We don’t have it this year and that is why I doubt that we can go all the way, but then again you never know. Donald Williams never came close to matching his performances in the 1993 tournament, but he was great that year and that was enough.

    Ellington has the chance to have that kind of offensive streak, Ginyard does not.

  2. Chuckheel says:

    THF,
    I think William is missing your point. I, too, think Ginyard should start in place of Ellington. The “X” factor in all of this is Reyshawn Terry. If his game were at the same level this year as opposed to last year, then I think there is no question that Ginyard would be starting. But, since Terry hasn’t delivered, Roy is basically forced to start Ellington so he can get offensive production from the wing. A question for you THF, why does it seem everygame that Terry makes at least 4 to 5 bonehead plays, either on offense or the defensive end?

  3. C. Michael says:

    An aside, nbadraft.net, which forecasts the next two NBA Drafts and is a good predictor of who may be leaving and who may be staying, has for the first time listed Tyler as a first round pick in the 2008 draft. Previously, he had always been in this year’s draft. I’v always said that if either Tyler or Brandan comes back, then next years team will be much better than this years.

  4. Tar Heel Fan says:

    Chuck,

    You took the response right out off my keyboard. I do not think it matters that Ginyard is less of an offensive threat if Terry shows up. Terry can be the swing man scorer because he can hit threes and has the size to score down low. Let’s look at the two past national title teams:

    1993 had basically three offensive options: Montross, Williams, and Lynch. Phelps and Reese provided marginal points. Looking at the box score from the 93 title game it was Williams: 25, Montross: 16, Lynch: 12, Phelps: 9, Reese: 8. The key point is all of those guys could play good defense with Lynch and Phelps being exceptionally good.

    2005 had a similar makeup. May, Felton, and McCants were regarded as the most significant offensive threats with Jawad Williams and Marvin Williams providing support. Manuel was pure defense all the time. The 2005 title game box score tells the same story: May: 26, Felton: 17, McCants: 14, J.Williams: 9, M.Williams: 8.

    This team might actually be in a better position in terms of offensive options if Terry is on his game. Hansbrough and Wright are options 1 and 2, Lawson and Terry could be 3 and 4 interchangeably which means you do not need offense from Ginyard just good defense like Manuel played. The point for me is no one has complained that UNC has an offensive problem other than being able to execute a clutch half court play and in those cases you simply substitute defense for offense as needed. The real issue for UNC is being able to shut down the other team’s SG and Ellington has allowed them to run hog wild throughout the season.

  5. C. Michael says:

    To be fair, UNC opponents are hitting 40.7% of their shots, as opposed to 40.1% for the 2005 team. Granted, this team seems to be more inconsistent, but when the put out the effort, you could make the arguement that they are better defensively than the 2005 team. For me, it’s all about the consistancy…

  6. C. Michael says:

    Also, comparing Manuel to Ellington is a bit unfair. The truer comparison would be Ellington to McCants and Manuel to Terry, which is much more of a wash.

  7. Tar Heel Fan says:

    I guess my focus is on the fact that Ellington’s man more times than not has killed us and obviously some adjustments need to be made to stop the opposing SG from going off like they are having a tendency to do.

  8. Chuckheel says:

    C. Michael,
    I think you are wrong on the Manuel/Terry comparison. Manuel was a stud on the defensive end and absolutely shut players down, with the exception of the second half of the title game when Illinois was allowed to run moving picks. Terry, in no way, is a defensive stopper. He has too many “lapses.” He also makes way more dumb decisions and dumb plays than Jackie Manuel ever thought of.
    On the other hand, Manuel was no where near the offensive threat Terry is. Terry, when he shows up (which is getting rarer and rarer) has the potential to produce. The only thing Manuel could give you on the offensive end was a dunk or layup. But, if Carolina had a defensive stopper like Manuel, they would be undefeated as we speak. Manuel would have shut down Dowdell both times.
    You can’t tell I’m a Jackie Manuel fan, can you.

  9. C. Michael says:

    Chuck,
    Didn’t mean to insinuate that Terry is in Manuel’s class. He isn’t, nor have any other Tarheels been since Phelps. But I do think Elllington is a better defender than McCants was, so the overall gap, defenisively, on the wings is not that significant.

  10. Jimmy G says:

    I watched the Terps rip up on Duke last night. The one thing I noticed about both of these teams is PASSION! First, let me say that I hate Greg Paulus with a passion, much like the same passion that he was playing with last night. His little retarded ass was out there pounding on his bird chest and playing with passion.

    For the Terps, I saw Vasquez fired up and ready to play. He buried two deep 3s to close out the first half. He had 12 assists! He was playing with passion and an utter refusal to lose to the team that we all hate.

    I watched the last 15 minutes of Texas A&M at Texas. Acie Law played 50 minutes. Durant played 49 minutes and is like a General on the court. These two guys are phenomenal.

    Why am I talking about these guys, because they all have the passion, the drive, the fire, the undying will to win that I keep looking for but don’t see when I watch my Heels play. I don’t see the boys in Carolina blue out there pounding on their chests, screaming lets go, come on, give me your best shot, it ain’t enough.

    Passion – that’s what we’re missing, and this season’s going to end fast if someone doesn’t step up and start playing with it.

  11. C. Michael says:

    I dare you to tell Tyler to his face that he doesn’t play with passion.

  12. Tar Heel Fan says:

    Okay, let’s call a spade a spade here. When we are discussing this passion/heart issue are really talking about the freshmen and to some extent Terry? Do you think Tyler, Ginyard, Green, Frasor, Miller, and Thomas are doing what they are supposed to do but the freshmen with Lawson being the least guilty of this are the ones who are not as focused as they could be?

    I am simply asking the question…anyone got any thoughts?

  13. williamodouglas says:

    To be honest, I keep forgetting about Reyshawn Terry because he has been so invisible this year. Several things have caused this team to underperform expectations: the play of Terry, Wright’s foul shooting and the failure of Ellington to perform quite as well as expected.

    I think we all have to agree that it is a difficult chore to take 12 guys, all outstanding in different ways and tell them that they won’t have quite as many minutes or perhaps points, in the name of a team. I get the feeling that R. Terry is disappointed with his senior season and we could all perhaps understand that. Nevertheless, guys like Manuel were highly recruited but learned to accept lesser roles. If Terry could do what he did last year, then maybe Ginyard playing more would become more of an option.

    Just a couple of asides. Pomeroy had a much higher opinion of McCants’ defensive abilities than many Tar Heel fans seem to. You can probably still find it on his blog. Just because McCants was self-centered, didn’t necessarily make him a bad defender. See, e;g., Dennis Rodman and Ron Artest.

    Vince Carter was a very slow starter at UNC, so Ellington may still come around.

    B. Wright’s free throw struggles are a much bigger deal than Shaq’s, because of the 1 and 1 rule in college ball. Not only do we lose the value of the free throws that he misses, we lose the potential value of the one’s that never get taken. Right now, he is, after Tyler, our leader in FT attempts. I cannot remember a Tar Heel who was a starter going back to the 70’s, who was anywhere as bad as he is at free throws. As good as Wright is, honestly, I hope Roy doesn’t recruit guys in the future who don’t make at least 2/3 of their free throws at the high school level.

    It is just too painful watching B. Wright at the free throw line; it is like watching Elaine in the episode where she dances on Seinfeld.

  14. Josh Bowling says:

    Good points. I want to argue the fact that we should be a better team next year. Yeah, we will be more experienced. Look at what we lost this year, a slasher in David Noel. Look at what we loose next year, a slasher in Reyshawn Terry. Noel/Terry and people like him (Brian Reese in the past) that can take someone off the dribble and get into the paint and finish is a piece of what we are going to miss next year. Yeah, we have Ellington. But he has shown no signs that he can be a force driving in and finishing. Consequently, people can defend us by simply staying in front of their man and hope jump shots are missed. Championship slashers = Jordan/Worth-82 Reese/Phelps-93 McCants/Williams-05 WHO NEXT YEAR!!

    As for Ellington, anyone can do what he does which is take jump shots and play less than great defense. Ginyard goes after balls and gives additional possessions that we wouldn’t otherwise have. He had a high school history of making shots, and he very well could be capable of that now. Danny Green has the “Green Light”, plays defense, and can cut to the basket leaving a defensive breakdown for opposing teams. We need either that out of Ellington, or he needs to show us that “Donald Williams” potential he has.

    Please convince me I am wrong and that we will be all or more next year, because that is what I really want to believe.

    Thanks

  15. williamodouglas says:

    To answer that, THF, I don’t think we should be too hard on the freshmen. Last year’s team probably was not as good as its record, while this team is better than its record. In spite of all the losses, Carolina has not budged in the power ratings where it is rated number one overall, and number two in defense and number three in offense.

    Let’s look at the losses. One was against a Gonzaga team that matched up well with us and was in the team’s second game. Two were against road rivals with very difficult crowds (State and Maryland) and with the exception of the loss to State, all of the losses have been close and against top fifty teams. Let’s consider the loss to State, a bad loss. That gives Carolina one bad loss and no games where it was not closer than six points in the final 2 minutes.

    Kansas is most similar to the Heels, having lost to mediocre Oral Roberts in a close game and having also lost one home game to a good conference rival. UCLA has not lost at home, but has lost to 3 so-so teams on the road. Texas A&M has a VPI type nemesis in Texas Tech, to whom it has lost twice, also losing last night to Texas. and in the past to LSU and UCLA.

    Florida and Ohio State each have bad losses and have suffered blow out losses of more than ten points.

    So, when you compare UNC to the other teams that are touted to be its most likely rivals in March and April, things don’t look as bad as might seem.

    Second, another interesting aspect would be to consider Wes Miller. Last year, Wes Miller made 64-105 three point attempts, for a .441 average. This year, Wes has made 23-74 three-point attempts for a .324 percentage, which has only risen very recently from the mid .20’s.

    While Wes Miller is a decent shooter, he probably outdid himself last year, as he was rated the second most productive offensive player in the nation by Pomeroy. On the other hand, only making 1/4 of them as he was averaging a couple of weeks ago, was probably not the real Wes either. Which is it? Probably somewhere in the middle.

    Check your memories, if not your Tivo’s. If Wes had not clanged so many three pointers against Gonzaga (0-5), Carolina would have probably won that one. He didn’t shoot too many in the other threes losses, before bouncing back against Maryland and making a couple of big one’s. But Wes Miller’s big shots made a huge difference last year. Not being able to depend on them this year has made his minutes on court much less productive.

    The next huge problem is the free throw shooting by Wright and Lawson. Wright is shooting .543 and Lawson is shooting .646. Thus, after Hansborough, the next two team leaders in free throw attemtpts make a combined 58% from the free throw line.

    Teams like Virginia dare you to foul their guards at the end of the game. Most excellent point guards make at least .75% from the line. It goes with the job. I have no confidence that either B. Wright or Ty Lawson can make two free throws with the game on the line, unlike Phil Ford, Kenny Smith and Shammond Williams who were automatic. At the very least, Ty needs to get up to the .70 mark.

    I don’t think that there is anything Wright can do to improve his free throw shooting at this point in the year. Stepheson is even worse, which leaves Thompson, who is currently shooting 68% but may be better than that, to perhaps get some more time during foul critical junctures. Teams often improve in free throw shooting during the year. If Carolina can, things might not be as bleak as some of us naysayers think.

  16. Tar Heel alum and fan says:

    I think here’s a good chance we’ll lose Hansbrough and Wright to the NBA this year and possibly Lawson, so saying we’re “a year away” is overlooking the fantastic talent we have on this team and the opportunity to get another title this year. A big reason Ginyard doesn’t start is that if teams can get back fast enough to counter our primary and secondary breaks, we’re stuck in half court and need Ellington’s outside shot to loosen things up inside for Hansbrough, Wright et al. I agree with all previous posts on Ellington’s defense but Terry hasn’t been hitting the big 3’s like he did last year. Maybe Roy should shake things up and start Ginyard and Green instead of Ellington and Terry. That way you get better defense with Ginyard on the opposing team’s shooting guard and don’t fall off that much with Green, who is a clever offensive player. Even if the team stays pat, there will be edge in the NCAAs for UNC because teams playing us for the first time will not be used to the pace and depth we can bring to bear. Unfortunately, if a team gets hot against us, we may wilt under pressure…

  17. Lonnie says:

    I think it still is going to come done to Terry, not the freshman. He has the talent and he has showed in the past. It just seems to me that he can not stay focused or consistant. He needs to beable to be the one that steps up in games like Maryland and take charge. He has not been there when this team has needed him, in the crunch time.

  18. Tar Heel alum and fan says:

    Which is why I suggested Danny Green play in place of Terry, just to shake things up. I don’t have any stats but Green’s per minute production seems high to me.

  19. Lonnie says:

    Green also seems to be more consistant. I will have to agree with you! I also agree after the last few games it is time for a shake up. Maybe it will light a fire under Terry to be sat down!!

  20. williamodouglas says:

    Pomeroy breaks out the offensive ratings. Hansbrough is almost identical to last year. Terry and Wes Miller are way down from last year. Green has the top offensive rating among non-starters, almost tied with Ellington.

    I think that we have to realize that with the exception of State, Duke and Wake, everybody else in the ACC is as good or better than they were last year.

  21. Tar Heel Fan says:

    I think we stand a good chance to retain everyone. Wright is most likely to go but there are concerns about his game. Hansbrough might have issues going high in the 1st round and Lawson has said(taken with a grain of salt) that he wants to be Top 5 when he goes.

  22. williamodouglas says:

    I think Hansbrough is going to take a good hard look at the success that Eric Montross and Danny Ferry had in the NBA (I see him as a sort of cross between the two) and realize that it is much more special to be part of great program. Even Laettner ended up being a mediocre pro. Maybe Hansborough could be another Bobby Jones and have that type of pro success, but I am not convinced yet.

    Look at the 2005 UNC guys. Marvin is only now starting to shine, while May and McCants have hardly played due to injuries. Of the four big draft choices, only Felton is playing at a high level.

    The NBA is a whole different game, not to mention that you can now earn a living that would qualify you as rich by playing in Europe and other places.

  23. Tar Heel alum and fan says:

    Hansbrough will be appealing to the NBA because of his ferocity and that he has the potential to develop a short to medium jump shot that could be a real weapon at that level. I think Wright is definitely gone – he is being compared to Chris Bosh and his game is well suited to the NBA. I think we beat Tech tonight but Duke will be tougher going – they’re playing much better now and their defense will bother us.

  24. williamodouglas says:

    I think Wright will be a better pro than college player. Free throws don’t matter so much when you are playing 82 games and without the 1 and 1. I also do not see his departure as that great of a loss. He seems a nice kid but plays without passion. We can plug Thompson and Stepheson in and they won’t be much of a drop-off.

    It is hard to tell sometimes who will excel in the pro’s. Eric Montross and Danny Ferry were unquestionably better college players than Brandan Haywood, but he has had a successful pro career while neither of them panned out.

  25. Chris says:

    I agree with comments about lack of passion. There is no one on this team with a David Noel type team passion. I think the large number of talented players and the revolving door lineup has disrupted any sense of team spirit. Lawson isn’t close to being a lottery pick at this point; I think his play from here on out determines if we are a team that can finish the big games. I would be tempted to start Tyler, Wright, Green, Ginyard and Lawson and let them play significant minutes together, and try to recover a sense of a team nucleus.

  26. williamodouglas says:

    Since no one seems to think any of Roy’s teams can play defense, I’ve taken this from the KenPom site. Our defense collapsed when Rashad was out of the line-up those four games, not to mention the fact that we could not buy an outside shot against Duke, which almost cost us the game. Note, once against, different from what everyone wants to believe, Pomeroy attributes McCants’ defense and UNC’ s defense as being key.

    Wednesday, March 09, 2005
    Cants Win It All Without Rashad

    UNC’s Rashad McCants has missed the Tar Heels last four games due to a mysterious intestinal disorder. UNC has won all four games, but not surprisingly, they have not been as dominant without him. Most of the minutes vacated by McCants have been snapped up by the offensively-challenged and smaller Melvin Scott. How has McCants’ absence affected his team? Let’s look at how UNC performed in the four games without him, and against those same opponents earlier in the season when McCants played.

    With McCants Without McCants
    -Opponent- Tempo OE DE Tempo OE DE
    NC St. 67.9 140 105 62.9 129 113
    Maryland 89.4 122 84 72.6 117 114
    Florida St. 68.0 119 88 73.4 124 103
    Duke 71.5 98 99 68.0 110 107
    Average 74.2 120 94 69.2 120 109

    If you have been reading this blog for a while then you’re familiar with what these numbers mean, but for those who aren’t…

    Tempo: Number of possessions in the game. It’s estimated from box score data, so that’s the reason there aren’t round numbers listed.

    OE: Offensive Efficiency. It’s 100 multiplied by points scored divided by possessions. Higher numbers are better.

    DE: Defensive Efficiency. It’s 100 multiplied by points allowed divided by possessions. Lower numbers are better.

    From this simple analysis, UNC’s change has taken place on the defensive end where they have been unable to keep any of their last four opponents under a point per possession. We’re only talking four games here, but the difference is significant enough to take note of.

    As a few of the stats page zealots have noted, Carolina’s defense has been more exceptional than their offense this season. It’s a fact you’re not likely to hear in any tournament previews, which will mainly gush about how many points the Heels score. But their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks first nationally, while in the same stat on the offensive side they rank fourth.

    I don’t think it takes much of a leap to say that it’s because of that defensive prowess that UNC is able to score consistently and score quickly. UNC has enough scorers to fill the McCants void, but they aren’t getting the fast break opportunities that they used to get, because they aren’t forcing as many missed shots and turnovers as they used to. This is reflected in the decrease in tempo, although in fairness, most of the decrease is attributable to the difference in the Maryland games.

    The reduction in defense is one reason why UNC is less upset-proof without McCants, but the decrease in possessions is also important because it gives UNC fewer opportunities for their talent to demonstrate its superiority. So if UNC is going to make a run at a title, they need to get McCants back.

    Or alternatively, try to suit up the other McCants that will be in the tournament.

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