Ken Pomeroy: UNC Has Best Chance to Win the Title

Interesting numbers from Ken Pomeroy who lays out the chances each team has for winning at each stage of the tournament. He has Midwest/West here and East/South here. According to Pomeroy, UNC has 20.90% chance of winning the NCAA Tournament this season. Kansas has the second best chance at 18.89% followed by Ohio State at 11.32% and Florida at 10.85%. The intriguing thing Pomeroy points out is that despite having the “best” chance among the 64 teams, UNC still is looking at an 80% probability they will not win the national championship.

Also on a side note.  The experts over at ESPN have their picks for the Final Four up and five of the eight analysts there have UNC in the Final Four with Dick Vitale predicting a national title for the Heels.  And while I like Jay Bilas I think he is absolutely smoking crack by not only predicting a Georgetown national title but that there will be three #1 seeds and a #2 seed in the Final Four.  On one side you have history which says such a thing has only happened once and that was in 1993.  On the other side of the coin you have Georgetown who would have to beat two #1 seeds and if they were to beat UNC en route to Atlanta that would be three #1 seed to win the title.  I just do not think they are that good.


3 Responses to Ken Pomeroy: UNC Has Best Chance to Win the Title

  1. C. Michael says:

    If you went on the idea that all teams are even, then UNC (or any team) would have less than a 2% chance of winning it all (0.50^6). To say UNC has a 20% chance of winning it all seems really high!

  2. williamodouglas says:

    I do think that the Number 1 seeds seem more a cut apart than some other years, but maybe that is my imagination. I am not sure if the numbers bear this out or not.

  3. buckFush says:

    agreed wlm-if they all play up to potential, I can see 4 #1’s in the Final 4.

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