ACC Basketball Update(3/3)

Where do we stand heading into the final week of the regular season?

The ACC season has been replete with OT games and stunning comebacks. Another one was had in College Park on Sunday with Clemson down 20 in the 2nd half before rallying to win by three. Heading into the final week I expect we will see more of the same as the middle of the pack jockeys for final position for the ACC Tournament. UNC and Duke on the other hand should win their games during the week setting up a regular season title game in Durham which I expect UNC to win. Clemson is likely going to end up in third and beyond that it is a certifiable mess.

Virginia Tech and Miami have the best chances to grab that all important fourth and fifth spot.  However fourth place gets you a day off during the ACC Tournament.  Maryland lost more than just a game in allowing Clemson to rally from 20 down to win in College Park on Sunday.  Maryland needed the win for the standings and for the NCAA Tournament resume.  As it stands right now, even if they win at Virginia to close out the season they will be 9-7 and they do not own either of the tiebreakers with Virginia Tech and Miami.  Miami has the most work to do but the better schedule playing BC at home and then at FSU.  VT has Wake Forest at home and Clemson on the road.  That looks like a split at best for them.  The likely scenario is VT, Miami and Maryland all at 9-7.  In that case Miami owns the tiebreaker on VT and VT on Maryland making the Hurricanes the fourth team off on ACCT Thursday.

Heading down into the cellar Wake Forest is looking at a 7-9 finish in losing to VT but beating NCSU at home.  They would be followed by FSU who could end the season losing two straight at UNC and versus Miami at home.  GT is also probably looking at a two game losing streak to end the season facing Clemson and then BC in Chestnut Hill which may land the Jackets in bed with the Eagles at 5-11.  And that final game between BC and GT would also be the tiebreaker between the two to finish ninth or tenth in the ACC.  UVa is playing much better and could surprise MD on the weekend but first they face Duke in their third game in six days which will probably do them in.  And NCSU will bring up the rear losing to Wake and ending up 4-12 with UVa having the tiebreaker should they also end up 4-12.

So based on the what I think will likely happen this is how I see the ACC Tournament setting up:

Thursday

#8 FSU vs #9 BC
#5 VT vs #12 NCSU

#7 WF vs #10 GT
#6 MD vs #11 UVa

Friday

#1 UNC vs FSU/BC
#4 Miami vs VT/NCSU

#2 Duke vs WF/GT
#3 Clemson vs MD/UVa

I can hardly wait,

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20 Responses to ACC Basketball Update(3/3)

  1. william says:

    Your favorite game is on ESPN Classic tomorrow, THF. At 3:00 PM, Carolina takes on FSU in January 1993.

  2. seth says:

    ESPNU is also showing Carolina classics, with the 2006 game in Cameron on Saturday.

    Is anyone else pretty excited that Clemson looks to be on the other side of the ACC Tourney bracket? I don’t want to face them a third time, unless it’s for the championship. THF, is there a scenario left (aside from Carolina losing this week) that would place Maryland on our side? I know I would certainly like to rematch.

  3. william says:

    I don’t want to play Duke, Maryland, Wake, Clemson or Georgia Tech.

  4. Tar Heel Fan says:

    GT or Wake is possible depending how things falls. Either of those teams could fall into the 8 or 9 spot and survive to play the Heels on Friday.

    To be honest playing Miami on semifinal Sat kinda worries me too.

  5. 52BigGameJames says:

    OMG–LOL! we really must pen a name to this phobia–something to the effect of: “my team is a serious playa now, with a legit shot at winning it all, but I mustn’t jinx em at this point with a bold prediction of their potency”!

    Gimme a little Stevie Wonder: very superstitious, thirteen month old baby, broke the lookin glass…

    We’re on a roll fellas, and now we’ve got the best pg in the Country back! We’ll own those biatches!

  6. Tar Heel Fan says:

    Sorry James…I still have 1987 stuck in my head.

  7. Steve the State Fan says:

    You guys are killing me! James is right – enjoy it and realize how special it is. Sure, there’s a chance the heels will slip up, but come on, they’re still the favorite in the league tourney.

    What was that Kinks song from circa 1979? “There’s a rat under my bed….and there’s a little green man in my head….” Oh yeah, “Paranoia!” I guess the rat reference is obvious, and the others are little green men.

  8. Chris Tutino says:

    There’s nothing to enjoy yet, Steve the State Fan (i think i know who you are). We haven’t won squat yet and haven’t beat Dook yet. That’s what I enjoy most every season and judge our success on. I stress the word “I” here.

    Men’s basketball championships are all that matter (regular season, ACC tournament and NCAA tournament). I’m not waiting for football season to begin. We are a basketball school and always will be.

    Mediocrity sucks (not to mention cellar dwelling). Once the NCAA Tournament ends, it’s all I can do to make it to the Blue/White game on Halloween.

    GO HEELS!

  9. Steve the State Fan says:

    Ok, so the song is “Destroyer” not “Paranoia,” and it’s “there’s a red under my bed” not a “rat under my bed.” I guess that’s a cold war reference. But rat sounds much better. My apologies to Ray Davies and Kinks fans everywhere. Don’t put me on one of those game shows.

    Yeah Tutino, I understand. I suppose you can always find things to worry about, no matter what’s happening with your team. But winning is special, and should be enjoyed at some point. It is possible to follow a train of thought to the conclusion that if you don’t win the national championship, the season is a disaster. I just think that’s silly. Have the heels had only 4 successful seasons(ignoring the bogus helms foundation thing)? I think not.

    If you can’t enjoy a season where you spend multiple weeks as #1, have the probable national POY, and have only 2 losses at the beginning of March, I don’t know what to tell you. :*)

    Yeah, you know me.

  10. 52BigGameJames says:

    how about letting some of the rest of us in on the secret Steve-hell, I was gonna suggest we make you an honorary thf.

    Who knows whats gonna happen, but I just have a feeling about this team that they are a slowly building juggernaut that’s getting ready to blow-and at the right time. And if not, well then, we go back to the Dennis Green quote, and, we get another year with Tyler.

  11. william says:

    I hope you are right, James, but I have been going over some of the games from 2005 and one thing that strikes me about that team is that with the exception of the games that starters missed, the 2005 team was essentially never behind in the second half of a game more than a handful of points.

    We can call Saturday a fluke based on Rice’s being a little lucky and good and focus on the comeback like most of the nation has, but like the Illini fallling 15 points down against Arizona and coming back in 2005, and thinking that they had gotten over the hump, or even the 1983 Redskins who were annihilating everyone and then struggled over the 49’ers,, well that is great, but certainly going down by 15 is no sign of strength.

    I love comebacks (let’s say trailing by more than 3 or more possessions in the second half) and we have now had three thrilling ones this year, but let’s not confuse ourselves too much. Yes, coming back shows resiliency, but it also shows weakness. I can only remember one game where the 1982 team had to come back and that was against Number 2 Virginia in Chapel Hill. The 1993 team did have a couple of games like these, one successful against FSU and one unsuccessful where they got blown out against Wake, but these were in January and they tended not to trail by large numbers until the first half of the Arkansas and Cincy and Michigan games, but not in the second half.

  12. seth says:

    Two things: I certainly didn’t mean to start a “worried” thread, or to say that I’m not enjoying the season. I was simply stating that it’s hard to beat a good team three times in the same year, no matter how good you are yourselves. And since it looks like Clemson will wind up number three, I’m qualifying them as a good team (as opposed to n.c.state, which it seems reasonable to say is in a transition year). That said, I’d relish the opportunity to play both Duke and Maryland in the tourney, and erase the prior losses.

    Secondly, our two comebacks (two, right? Clemson and BC) in February/March were without a starter…

  13. Chris Tutino says:

    OK, so my NC State neighbor (and a great friend, I might add) and I were having a discussion (i.e. rant) about why he doesn’t care about Hansbrough winning SI’s POY award. He stated, “Sorry, it’s just natural to hate anything that has to do with Carowina or Chapel Hill.”

    Here’s my response: “It’s natural because you despise the basketball excellence that Carolina has. You DO care that Carolina just got yet ANOTHER Player of the Year b/c you hate us so much. My do or die consquences (i.e. winning championships is all that matters) for Carolina are completely foreign for state fans b/c for any state fan to have that expectation would be like committing suicide before the first ball is tipped.”

    The conversation ended right there…too much to the point?

  14. william says:

    Yes, although once someone like Lawson misses 1/3 of the games, that becomes less revealing. The two Clemsons games played out more or less identically. If Carolina rips Duke and then wins the tournament easily, then we will see that the Lawson injury was more significant than some thought. Let’s hope for some easily wins the next two weeks.

  15. Josh Bowling says:

    My favorite Kinks song “Come Dancing” from 1983. Probably their last hit. Much different than “Lola” or “You really got me” by the Kinks. I agree William with your last post. If Lawson is who we think he is, we should win w/o much adversity going forward. Of course that’s everything else being equal with regards to other players’ performances.

  16. rbl says:

    I feel we have a legitimate shot at the national championship, both men and women.
    Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride, which will be a good one, even if we fall short in both cases.

    I’m not sure that being behind is a sign of weakness. As Roy Williams said, it is not embedded in the Constitution that Carolina is the only school that plays good basketball. It’s far more revealing that the team finds a way to win in the face of adversity. UNLV in 1991 was never challenged during the regular season, and when they were in the torunament, by Duke no less, they choked and lost, even though they were probably the better team. We have been tested, adn this is a good thing, as tournament time nears.

  17. Steve the State Fan says:

    Uh, Chris? Sometimes it’s not what you say, it’s how you say it :*) Do you always use such emotionally charged language when you talk to this great friend? Increase those BP meds, brother!

    POY is a great achievement and something to be proud of. But I never think about it unless a local player is being mentioned. I suppose I would say it was more important if someone from my team were a candidate (I am old enough to remember DT, and was a grad student when Rodney Monroe won ACC POY). When the national POY is someone from the Big East or PAC 10, it seems like a completely irrelevant award to me.

    Speaking of awards, did the Kinks ever even get nominated for a grammy?

  18. william says:

    Did the Kinks want to win a Grammy?

  19. Chris Tutino says:

    It was all in good fun, Steve. We had a few drinks last night and laughed about it. I wasn’t born when DT was playing but from what I read, he was the man.

    As for the Kinks, here’s your answer: “But the members of the Recording Academy, who vote on the Grammys, have made some stunningly questionable decisions over the years — and not just the notorious Best New Artist Grammy they gave to the lip-sync act Milli Vanilli. The academy has never given a Grammy to Neil Young, The Who, Led Zeppelin, or The Kinks.”

  20. william says:

    Winning a Grammy probably lessens a group’s street credibility. None of their categories make much sense and they, like the Oscars, go all ga-ga if someone deals with one of the left’s hallowed issues. Remember that Paul Simon album that was really just sort of O.K. in the mid-80’s, Graceland, but it was perceived as being against Apartheid. If I wanted to win one, I would call it Voices of the Holocaust and I would be sure to win. It seems like they were more meaningful 40 years ago.

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