Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop

A tradition unlike any other, the NBA Draft watch.

It must be spring.  The leaves are showing, the flowers are beginning to bloom, pollen is on your car and UNC fans are sitting around waiting to see who from this year’s team will toss their hat into the NBA Draft ring.  Last season Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and Brandan Wright all weighed the decision to turn pro.  Only Wright made the jump, the other two came back with a national title in mind.  The Heels came up a game short and now we wait to see if the two returnees from last season and Wayne Ellington will make the jump.

The Players

Tyler Hansbrough-Chance of Returning: 80%

Tyler Hansbrough is on record as saying he wants to win a national title that he will stay until that gets done or he graduates whichever comes first.  The problem is players say things like this all the time and as much as I would like to think he is sincere in that, I know better than to just buy it.  There is something to be said for Hansbrough feeling as though there is nothing left to attain on an individual level.  However, Hansbrough has also made it clear he values team success above his own.  In terms of his draft status, returning will not hurt it unless he gets injured.  Playing another season and improving certain aspects of his skill sets should help it.  At present the mock drafts I have seen have Hansbrough in the middle to late first round.  If he decides to go is will be because he is ready for a new challenge and wants to step into that stage in his life.

Wayne Ellington-Chance of Returning: 70%

The main impediment for Ellington from a stock standpoint is he does not appear to really have any right now and by that I mean he does not appear on mock drafts I have seen.  On one level Ellington has some NBA cailber moves and is a tremendous shooter.  On the flip side he is very streaky and not quite as good at finishing in the lane nor can he create his shot consistently.  And all of this might mean absolutely nothing to Ellington or the NBA data UNC gets might paint a different picture.  Still I am not convinced NBA scouts are going to cast Ellington even in the top 20 much less the lottery which means Ellington might decided to test the waters to go through the process or make the jump because he wants to play at the next level right now.  In the end I think Ellington will be back for at least one more season given the concerns about his game but we will have to wait to see how the information gatherin process goes.

Ty Lawson-Chance of Returning: 40%

I actually might have that a tad high.  Lawson has been projected at the edge of the lottery which might be enough to entice him to make the jump.  Obviously the input Roy gets from the NBA will paint the picture he needs to make an informed decision.  However, you get the feeling that Lawson wants to go the NBA as soon as possible and that is easily right now since he will get picked based on potential more so than the body of work which was seriously truncuated by the midseason injury.  The main complaints about Lawson will be his size and shot but his speed will garner the most attention from the scouts.  I still hold out hope that when the data is examined he will decide to play more season for improvement’s sake but the fact UNC is openly recruitng another player with no scholarship available makes me think Lawson as already told Roy he is going.

Scenarios

Scenario #1: Everyone Comes Back

UNC enters the season as the prohibitive favorite to win the national title.  Bobby Frasor steps into the reserve PG role vacated by Quentin Thomas.  Freshman Larry Drew restores the three man depth at PG.  The addition of Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis afford UNC more frontcourt depth.  The rest of the returning players all step up their games, especially on defense.  It will be the most hyped UNC team since 2005 considering they return everyone from a Final Four team that went 36-3.

Scenario #2: Lawson goes to the NBA; Ellington and Hansbrough stay

It was said repeatedly that UNC could not win a national title without Lawson at the point.  And given that I am not convinced Lawson was ever 100%, what we saw this past weekend might be small proof of that theory.  Without Lawson you are looking at Frasor as the starter and Drew as the backup with Marcus Ginyard as the third option.  Assuming Frasor is fully recovered from his ACL tear it is a safe assumption he will give you solid minutes at PG and possibly play better defense on the ball than Lawson did.  Granted some of the wrinkles Lawson brought to the floor will be gone but Frasor operates with a great A/TO ratio.  The addition of frontcourt depth and more consistent games from everyone else might compensate for having Frasor at the point rather than Lawson.  I think what you are talking about is UNC going from being a clear favorite ahead of other teams in the national title hunt to being among the favorites.

Scenario #3: Only Hansbrough returns; Lawson and Ellington go to the NBA

The national title is probably not in the cards but UNC could still win the ACC.  These two defections would require players like Danny Green and Will Graves stepping up to have career seasons.  It also means Ginyard has to much more than play defense.  Without this season’s starting backcourt UNC would need to find the perimeter offense from somewhere and also lack depth at the guard spots.  The weakness of the ACC still makes a UNC team with Tyler Hansbrough in the middle formindable but still ordinary in many ways.

Scenario #4: All three leave for the NBA

If all three decided to make the jump, your likely starting lineup for next season would be: Frasor, Ginyard, Green, Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson.  Drew, Zeller, Davis and Graves would be the key reserves. In this scenario Thompson and Stepheson need to make huge waves with their frontcourt play.  I also think Green becomes scoring option #1 in this scenario.  The question is whether one of the freshman can be an impact player or if Graves can springboard into being a double digits scoring threat, especially from the outside.  The question is whether this team can continue to run at the tempo Roy likes.  I would say not as much and if this is the UNC tema next season then the ACC will be a huge dogfight at the top between Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, UNC, and Duke for starters.

Concluding Thoughts

I think Scenario #2 is the realistic best case scenario.  The general feel is that Lawson will leave and if they can retain Hansbrough and Ellington then Frasor might be enough given the motivation factor to cut down the nets in Detroit.  And while Scenario #3 might not mean a national title, it will be enjoyable to see Hansbrough play his senior season and break all kinds of records.  So, #1 is the dream with #2 puttng UNC in the running for a title, #3 giving us a full season of Hansbrough appreciation likely without a title and #4 still looking 50 times better than things looked after the defections of 2005 happened.

Now the waiting begins…

Advertisements

53 Responses to Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop

  1. C. Michael says:

    I disagree that Lawson is projected near the lotto. Most of the projections I have seen have him mid-1st to early second round. NBAdraft.net has him as the #26 pick in the 2009 draft; with TH going #18, and WE #25. IMO, if any of these 3 go pro, then they, and Roy, are making a pretty large mistake in overlooking the relative strength of each of the next two drafts. I mean just yesterday, all 3 dropped at least 3 spots when Speights, Love, and Collison declared. The math is simple here.

  2. Santiago says:

    Hooray! A real topic for discussion.

    RE: Lawson. What a strange world we live in when potential ability outweighs proven ability. With all the time he missed this season it seems like staying one more year would help his game (and ours) and make him even more marketable in the Association.

  3. C. Michael says:

    Make that 4 spots. Donte Green declared as well.

  4. Chuckheel says:

    All 3 would be crazy to leave THIS YEAR. This draft is going to be loaded with first year jumpers, whereas the prospects for next year’s draft aren’t that promising.
    All 3, from what I have seen are projected in the early 20’s to late 20’s range of the first round… Not too good.
    With another full season of HEALTHY play, Lawson can certainly place himself in the lottery. Same for Ellington. I think that no matter what Hansbrough does, he can’t better or hurt his draft position, it will all come down to how much does he want to work for a title.

  5. Johnny says:

    I would be surprised to see Lawson leave this year. There are too many point guards/shooting guards that might play the point ahead of him in the rankings I have seen.

    Derrick Rose
    OJ Mayo
    Jerryd Bayless
    DJ Augustin
    Darren Collison
    AJ Price
    Curtis Jerrels

  6. C. Michael says:

    Johnny,

    I agree, though I would not put Price on that list this year b/c he tore his ACL in the NCAAT.

  7. Tar Heel Fan says:

    CM,

    I was basing that on the highest I had seen Lawson in any mock draft this season. He actually was in the lottery for a couple at one point but on average he had been hovering at around the 14-17 range until now.

    I do not think Lawson likes college or playing at the college level which is why people think he is going to jump. The sudden courting of Brad Tinsley also leads many to believe that Roy knows someone will be leaving early.

  8. […] Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop addthis_url = ‘http%3A%2F%2Fwww.keefermadness.com%2F2008%2F04%2F09%2Fscenarios-for-next-season%2F’; addthis_title = ‘Scenarios+for+Next+Season’; addthis_pub = ”; […]

  9. Will says:

    I believe Lawson originally planned on playing one year, but he didn’t look good enough last year to pull that off. This was supposed to be his year, and I think he was on pace until the injury. It doesn’t seem fair that he should have to stay another year because of an injury, but the same thing happened to Brandon Rush.

    If he comes back one more year and stays heathy, he will almost certainly be in a race with Brandon Jennings for the #1 PG off the board.

  10. Brooks from Baltimore says:

    I would rather TH stay before Lawson or Ellington. Either way, Roy looks like he is building a dynasty.
    Thanks for the post THF!

  11. Will says:

    This is from ESPN’s insider section

    • Scouts who were on the fence about North Carolina sophomore guard Ty Lawson were turned off by his poor play against Kansas. He shot poorly from the field, had as many turnovers as assists and seemed rattled for almost the entire game.

    All of the UNC players, including Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington, may want to return next season after getting embarrassed by Kansas that way. But Lawson may take the biggest hit in his draft stock.

  12. Tar Heel Fan says:

    Thanks Will for that information.

    The problem is the draft is like a bar with a bunch of men and women all scoping each other out. Some of the men get drunk off their rear ends instead of getting with their designated driver and going home they end up staying and then leaving with some trashy woman who is telling them they have “potential” We all know what tends to happen after that.

  13. C. Michael says:

    “We all know what tends to happen after that.”

    Burning?? 😉

  14. C. Michael says:

    Same difference… 😉

  15. Will says:

    I feel bad for Ty because I think he was on pace for a great year until his injury. But Brandon Rush had the same thing happen to him, and he won a championship.

  16. Tar Heel Fan says:

    I will forever wonder how the season would have gone had Ryan Reid not thrown Lawson to the floor. He came into that game with back to back 10 assist games and only one turnover. I know QT would have never gotten the chance to shine and it worked out in some ways but I have to believe if he had stayed healthy, playing the way he was playing UNC would have been even better.

    Alas, it was not meant to be. I just hope he comes back to take another run at it.

  17. jackiemanuel says:

    I always assume kids will choose guaranteed millions as soon as they can. First round draft picks are guaranteed 1-2 million over two years. I’m not sure a year of seasoning would get any of the four into the lottery, so it basically comes down to which draft class (08 or 09) is better. I have no idea about that.

    I would expect 4 Carolina players to test the waters and work out without signing an agent.

    Tyler might not even consider leaving. He has said in the past he wants to win a title and just about every feature mentions how much he loves college. Still, Tyler has to consider the guaranteed money too. It’s doubtful he’d make a lot more money by staying another year but instead risk an injury and delay his free agency. Finally, that title becomes much tougher to get if others leave…especially….

    Tywon Lawson didn’t do too much to help himself with all of the injury troubles. Still, he’ll surely work out for NBA teams and if healthy could receive a guarantee that if he’s there he’ll be picked. If he gets that, he’s gone. He might not get that guarantee though and if he’s on the fringe he would be well served to come back and work on his set shot and defense. We need him desperately to bridge the gap to Strickland. If Lawson returns we are right back in the 2009 title mix. If not….we’ll have to hope Drew and Frasor can step up. I’m not optimistic about Lawson playing in Chapel Hill next season.

    Wayne probably frustrates scouts as much as he does defenders. I personally think he’s a first round talent. Who knows what NBA geniuses like Donnie Walsh and John Paxon think. His situation is pretty similar to Tywon’s except he might move into the lottery with an outstanding year. He’s not limited by his size and the breakout potential is real. The difference between lottery money and end of first round money is significant, but not as significant as the difference between 2 million and nothing. He’ll be looking for that guarantee.

    Danny has the biggest upsidely potentialness. I know you didn’t mention him here, but we have to consider him as well. If he works out for teams, I can’t imagine them not being impressed. Maybe he’s not even considering it, but I think he might be gone too.

    I obviously have no inside information, but I prefer to be cold about this. These kid’s careers are more important than Carolina basketball..at least to them. I hope they all come back and they all could come back. Most likely that 3 of them won’t though.

    Love and Collison declared.

  18. Tar Heel Fan says:

    I do not think Green is even thinking about it at this point.

    I am least optimistic about Lawson. Ellington is just not showing up on anyone’s radar that I can see to the point he might be in the 2nd round if he jumps.

  19. Dan Schwind says:

    From NBAdraft.net:

    “His 2-8 fg, 9 point performance in the national semi-final is further proof that the sophomore point guard isn’t ready for the next level. He did not display the ability to run the team and set teammates up that would suggest he’s prepared for the next level.

    While Lawson has phenomenal quickness, his size is a major concern and he will need to further his ability to get shots off at his size. Returning for his junior year would help to ensure his ability to successfully make the jump and possibly become an NBA starting point guard someday.

    All three Tar Heels — Lawson, Hansbrough and Ellington — could possibly get into the first round this year, but none are a lock and all would benefit by returning for another season, as North Carolina would be the favorite to win a national championship with all of them back.”

  20. Thanks for the analysis, THF. I would suspect you are right on, except that I would give Tyler a lesser chance. Yes, he has said he would stay until a National Title, but that is easy to promise when you have two more years (i.e. 2 more chances) ahead of you to reach that goal. Now, with one year left, and the realization that 1. He can’t do it by himself, and 2. The players around him, who were motivated this season by a troublesome and untimely loss, could not pull off a National Title–so how is being motivated by yet another ugly loss going to change things? You have to be realistic. Talk is talk, but, in the end, people show you what they are capable of or willing to do by their actions. The Kansas debacle is a perfect example of that. One Tar Heel gave his full-out effort that game, and, if I was Tyler, I might look around, surmise that the rest of the team simply does not want it all as badly as he does, and then find a place where he can at least be monetarily rewarded for his effort.

    Wayne will prove to us how smart he is by his choice. Like you I see him as being a second rounder, if even that. No guarantees on those contracts.

    Ty certainly could be talked into leaving. I believe the only thing that would make him stay would be to better his stock. He needs to prove he is tough, because he will be injured again, and no team wants another Grant Hill sitting on their bench for 4 seasons, getting paid but never playing.

    Lets hope they all stay and the big happy family will go and kick everyone’s butt next year and bring home the hardware. It would be a great ending to the Tyler Hansbrough era.

  21. Johnny says:

    The semi-final game probably set back all of the Heels when it comes to the draft. Lawson looked small and unable to get inside or create his own shot. Ellington was really pressing–though to his credit it was his sense of desperation that helped bring the Heels back from complete humiliation. And Hansbrough looked like himself–which is to say that it wasn’t pretty, but at the end of the game he had a solid 17 and 9. I think folks that hadn’t seen much of Hansbrough were critical of his performance because they expected some flash, which obviously is not what he does. He just fills up the stat sheet and works his heart out. I’m always surprised by how good his final numbers are after I watch a game.

    The title game itself created an argument that long and strong win out over speed and finesse (which outside of Hansbrough is how I would describe the Heels this year). That was certainly the winning argument this year, though if the game had been called tighter (or had included a finesse team) the argument might go the other way.

  22. tarheeler4life says:

    Don’t get me started on the NBA draft. What makes me so mad is that most of these kids that go early, never amount to a hill of beans. For example, Rashad Mccants, Sean May, Marvin Williams(even though he is still young), and Raymond Felton. What have they proven in the NBA? Why couldn’t they stay longer? I know I know. It all has to do with money but I disagree with players going early to the NBA. Why not stay longer and improve their overall draft pick and their play of the game. They actually will come out a lot better player in the NBA-which by the way I hate!!!!

  23. tarheeler4life says:

    Hansbrough, Lawson, and Ellington are not ready to play in the NBA. They need one more year at least. They proved that they were not ready for the NBA when they played against Kansas.

  24. C. Michael says:

    Actually, Williams (15 and 6), Felton (14 and 7), and McCants (14.5, 40% 3pt) are all having fairly good years and it is unlikely that another year would have helped. Also, they all went in the lottery, so it was unlikely for them to improve there, either.

  25. Tar Heel Fan says:

    Williams has come along slowly but should eventually be a very good player. Felton has been jerked around by Charlotte because they have no idea whether they want him at point or the two. McCants benefited from the KG trade and is having a good season.

  26. Santiago says:

    THF, in your 10:03am post you expressed your hypothetical about how the season would have gone had Lawson not suffered the high ankle sprain. I look back on the season with a big “what if” about losing Frasor. No doubt he would have been a huge asset in those games where the ‘Heels didn’t bring the “D.” I’d like a 2008-2009 season with both of them back and healthy.

    Also, the reality of Saturday night is finally setting in (I was at the beach with the family for the weekend, so I wasn’t able to give the game my full attention). This year the team made up for the G’town debacle by reaching the FF in a very businesslike manner. Next year, should everybody return, you have to think making up for the Kansas game will be their main motivation, and that they will work toward that goal akin to how they reached the FF this season.

    Man, the next 20 days or so are going to creep by so slowly…

  27. tarheeler4life says:

    It would be very nice to have Lawson and Frasor together on the team next year. Lawson Definetly needs to stay b/c he needs more improvement on his game. He’s a good player but he isn’t ready for the NBA.

  28. C. Michael says:

    Getting his 3pt % up to the low 40’s would significantly improve his (Lawson’s) stock.

  29. Not that I want Lawson to leave early, but it seems like a lot of comments about how he’s not ready are just based on one game. I find that absurd, but that’s just me.
    I agree with what people have said in earlier posts; there are just way too many PG’s out there right now to not know what kind of money you’ll be getting. I’m pretty confident Lawson will stick around another year along with Tyler and Ellington.

  30. Big Apple Heel says:

    Not a perfect comparison, but it feels like Lawson is at the same place Felton was, more or less, after 2 years – he has speed, range on his shot and ability to run the offense, but the latter two aren’t as consistent as they need to be. Felton becoming a legit 3-point threat was a big improvement in his Jr. season.

    But THF, as you say, I just don’t get the feeling that Lawson loves playing at this level. Watching the post-game locker room interviews on Saturday, he just seemed aloof from what was a truly awful loss. The contrast between him and his teamates’ emotions was pretty stark, but I admit I’m reading a lot into a little.

    Ellington seems like a classic NBA ‘tweener – doesn’t have the PG skills to play the 1 and not the kind of size you’d like to see for an NBA 2-guard. I’ve seen some compare him to Joe Forte, which may have some merit, but on the whole it’s grossly unfair. Forte’s skills weren’t his problem at the next level.

  31. Josh Bowling says:

    There is some talk going around that maybe all of these guys should go and give a “new crop” a chance to come in and help win a title. I really see all of these guys needing to come back in order for us to have a chance next year at it. Regardless of what some people may say, I do not see this team as having a “culture of defeatism” in them. We just came to the game unprepared to meet a fisty, dreamy-eyed bunch of kids with championships in their mind. I see our rivals next door as the team with a “culture of losing” in them.

  32. tom tanner says:

    Jeez fellas, lets go on to maturity and wish Tyler Ty, and Wayne and yes; possibly Danny- the very best! This is what Dean brought to the college basketball scene for his players. He wanted the best for them and when the money is right, he would advise them that “now” is the time to say good-bye. We are not talking about the Duke philosophy of what is best for coach and the ole alma mater. We’re talking Carolina basketball and what is best for the players when their time has come. Personally, I would love to see Tyler come back and win it all and break all the records( what few are) left! But their time has arrived.

  33. Santiago says:

    The kids and I are watching ESPN’s coverage of the par-3 at the Masters this afternoon. Too bad that DL3 didn’t make this year’s field. Anybody know if there are any former Tar Heels playing at Augusta this weekend?

    TxTH, you and I brought up a couple Masters references in the NCAA championship thread, so I’ll ask you. Are you taking El Tigre, or the field? “Everyone” is predicting a majors sweep this year, so I don’t like his chances. But what I’m really hoping for is a change pace. He’s perfect when tied or leading after 54 holes, and 0-for-whatever when trailing at the same point. So, I’m hoping that he’ll either (a) come from behind, or (b) blow the lead on Sunday. He’s a golfing freak o’ nature, but it’s not enjoyable to me to watch any final round where he has the lead. So far he’s been a machine, so there’s no drama or excitement even if he is chipping/putting in everything…Plus, I’m more of a Mickelson fan. 😉

  34. C. Michael says:

    Tom,

    I agree with you that it should definitely be about what is best for the players, which is why I was the first to applaud the decisions of of May, McCants, Williams, and Felton after ’05. The thing is, I honestly believe that based on the strength of this draft, the 3 current Heels run a significant risk of not getting drafted in the first round, whereas next year, they are relative locks. That makes a huge difference, in terms of guaranteed money.

  35. Santiago says:

    I had my previous comment enclosed by clever little “” and “” brackets, not thinking that the html encoding would just ignore them. Sorry if the change of topic was too much of a shock.

    My cleverness is indirectly proportional to how clever I try to be.

  36. tom tanner says:

    I wanted to point a few more items out. Ty is a legit first rounder. He sustained a blow to his ankle and his game was affected. He is also a 50 plus percentage shooter-something Raymond never accomplished. Do not think for a minute Roy will replace him with the same results. Wayne has improved his game substantially to the tune of an added 5 points more a game average and ball handling skills and defense. He has great upside potential as does Ty. And Danny Green is athletic and his shooting percentage has came around and like Wayne he is a good foul shooter. Tyler-who knows? He may start flying like Jordan next year! Thank you guys for dethroning Duke and all your championships.

  37. Santiago says:

    “” and “” should be “threadjack” and “/threadjack” in brackets.

    Maybe I should change my name to “Everclever”

  38. jackiemanuel says:

    I imagine all four of them are going to be told by Roy that they are 1st -2nd round. No harm in testing the waters and working out. At that point they’ll either receive first round ‘promises’ or they’ll return to school.

  39. w says:

    don’t these guys all have that 4.4 million insurance policy? the final game showed me that these guys are not ready for the nba….plus, i don’t watch nba games anyway!

  40. Tar Heel alum and fan says:

    I’m sorry to say but I believe at least two of the three mentioned will go pro. Maybe three and Danny Green too. The money, even in the late first and early second rounds is pretty alluring. Of course they should also look at all the players (including from UNC) who went pro early and did not work out. It’s a big leap in talent to the NBA, where players coming off the bench were All Americans in college.

  41. Silent Sam says:

    I don’t think very many college players are concerned about “whether they are ready for the NBA”, just where they are expecting to be picked in the draft or whether their anticipated draft position is based on “potential” or “the right stuff”.

    Of course there are always a couple or more idiots who decide to go pro, hire an agent and then don’t even get drafted.

    Of course, I don’t think this has ever happened to a UNC player, but it has happened much more frequently than it should.

  42. TxTarheel says:

    Caught ol’ Lefty Driesell on a Final Four show on local sports radio yak last weekend…he makes a very good point. The key reason for going to college is getting a better job & make more money. On the one hand all 3-4 players can return next season, make another “juggernaut” run into the Final Four and we all hope cut down the nets. But, if Roy gets minimum 2 years I have no real qualms with someone wanting to jump early, as long as they don’t land with a thud as Forte did & hopefully scouting can prevent that. Nothing to do but wait & see…

    *Santiago: I take Woods anytime he is teeing it up at Augusta. Assuming he does win the Masters, I give him 50/50 odds of completing the slam. He’ll do it at some point in his career.

  43. Johnny says:

    Financially, there is a huge financial difference between being picked in the lottery vs. non-lottery and being picked in the first vs. second round. Check ot the salaray scale here: http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Rookie-Salary-Scale-2007. And second rounders don’t get guaranteed contracts. It makes a lot of sense to wait a year for that certainty if you think your draft status will improve.

    Lawson would be crazy to leave given all the PGs ahead of him. Even if he doesn’t improve he’ll go higher next year based on the shallower PG pool in 2009.

    Ellington would be taking a risk this year, as thus far I haven’t heard that he is a lock for the first round.

    Hansbrough, on the other hand, probably doesn’t have much to lose if he leaves this year. Will his game improve significantly with another year? Will his draft status improve? I’m hesitant to doubt that he can do anything, but my gut says no or at least not pushing him into the lottery.

    Spencer Hawes, the Washington Husky who went into the draft after one year, was faced with a similar debate as Hansbrough (though his stock was higher). He wasn’t going to be able to improve his draft status much by sticking around. So he went pro early as he had nothing to lose. Hawes went #10 and is playing 12 minutes a game.

    Big question for Hansbrough is whether he thinks next year’s team has what it takes to win it all. It looks to be the same team, perhaps with the addition of Frasor and the likely nominal (given the number of returning players) playing time for the freshmen.

  44. Chris says:

    1. If Danny Green goes, it’s to play in Europe, not the NBA.
    2, Given the talent coming out this year, and his performance in the Kansas game (yeah one game can make a difference), he certainly won’t be a lottery pick. He’ll have to decide if he wants to go second round and possibly end up like Jameson in the NBDL.
    3, same for Wayne, maybe late second round……there’s just too much better talent out there. They’re looking for players who can dominate a game in all respects a la Rose or C D-R, not just a spot up shooter who scores big every 9 games.
    4. Hansbrough’s a late lottery pick and will just have to decide what he wants.

  45. Josh Bowling says:

    That’s the way I see it Chris!

  46. Josh Bowling says:

    A lot of Carolina fans are calling for Ty, Ellington, and Hansbrough to leave and give the incoming freshmen a shot at cutting down the nets and finishing what these players couldn’t do. I think that logic is foolish, but most UNC fans are rooting for this to happen.

  47. Josh Bowling says:

    The Czar of Inside ACC blog is also pleading for this to happen. Remember, they picked before the beginning of the season for NC State to finish near the bottom of the ACC, while most were thinking they’d finish in the top 4. They definately know what they’re talking about over there, as they also had UNC going to the final4, but had Kansas/UCLA in the finals. Pretty dang close.

  48. Russell says:

    As observed and stated mid-season: As Lawson goes, so go the Heels. (Q changed tha eQuasation during the late-mid., thank G.)
    But now, let Lawson go. Either he gets with the program or leaves it. It’s up to him. But I only want to see him back if he’s with The Program, not because of any draft expectations.

    Team One. Player None. That’s it.
    Russell

  49. DeanForever says:

    Chris-

    Your most recent post should serve as a moment of clarity for all of us who are entertaining this thing way too much. I agree completely with nearly all of your synopsis; especially the Green and Wayne bits. Look, the only thing bringing Lawson back is the bleak hope that he could move up to a lottery pick next year. I would like to believe that he enjoys playing for (arguably) the top coach in the country. I would like to think that he enjoys being a part of (arguably) the top program in the country. I would like to think that he wants to show every tuned-in college basketball fan that he is the number one point guard in the nation. I would also like to think that Mike Krzyzewski will retire after next season. Hmmmm.
    Like Russell says, “either he gets with the program or leaves it.” This isn’t Memphis.

  50. Asheville Heel says:

    I took in THF’s point that Roy is actively recruiting Brad Tinsley when he doesn’t currently have a scholarship to give. As you infer, that must mean that Roy knows that at least one of the players is leaving. However, since supposedly Tyler, Wayne and Ty are in the fact gathering stage it might be another scenario. Back during the season when Alex left the team to be with his ailing father it was not commonly known that when he left the coaching staff thought there was a real possibility that he would not be back for the spring semester. Two things besides his father’s illness were, 1) he was not happy with his playing time and 2) his mother never really wanted him to go that far from home to begin with. It was believed that he would transfer to a west coast school. In the end, he only come back because the Heels had a real chance to win the NC. I have heard that he might still be leaving the program at the end of the term. I hope he doesn’t go, but, that could be why Roy already “knows” that he is losing at least one player for next year. Just saying!

  51. DeanForever says:

    If Stephenson goes, then there is a depth problem (obviously). Might that mean that Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller split more quality time? Also, at some point in the next few weeks, we will begin to view next season in one of two ways: 1) we have a great shot at winning a national championship, or 2) we will field a team very much like 2006, in which the familiar faces had to mesh with the newcomer(s);thus, we may then (collectively) take a deep breath and prepare for a transitional season. However, if this “transitional” season would be anything like ’06, I’ll take it! Minus, of course, the second round exit in the NCAA tournament.

  52. […] than I am about this and I have not seen anyone mention Danny Green leaving too. Tar Heel Fan has a very good break down. It is kind of silly to try and guess what these kids will do, but what else can a Carolina […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: