Draft Watch(5/7)

Checking a couple of mock drafts to see how things stand.

Draft Express posted a new 2008 NBA Mock Draft on Tuesday.  Here is where the three Tar Heels with their names in the ring are positioned.

Ty Lawson: 1st round, 28th.

Wayne Ellington: 2nd round, 12th(42nd overall)

Danny Green: NOT LISTED.

Lawson is up one spot from the last mock draft by these guys and Ellington is down two spots.

NBADraft.net also had a new mock draft out this week with a totally different take where Lawson and Ellington are concerned.  Not Green, he still is not on the list.

Ty Lawson: 2nd round, 4th(35th overall)

Wayne Ellington: 1st round, 25th.

Danny Green: NOT LISTED

I am not sure what standard the latter is using but that seems to be completely opposite of what everyone else is saying.  The general talk seems to agree more with Draft Express than NBADraft.net when it comes to the positions for Lawson and Ellington.  The fact no one I have seen has Green listed makes his decision more peculiar by the minute and also worries me we will soon see an agent hired by his father to “help improve his draft position.”  As it stands right now I am not sure he will be going to Orlando and if he doesn’t then what is the point?

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17 Responses to Draft Watch(5/7)

  1. Josh Bowling says:

    I sure was HOPING that Tyler’s decision for one more year would give way for others to follow. I guess that’s not happening.

  2. Johnny says:

    Surprised to see Wayne in the first round. Though as I look through the projected second rounders there is not a whole lot to get excited about if you’re an NBA fan. (Not that many of us in Seattle acknowledge the NBA with Clay Bennet as an owner.)

    I also looked at the 2009 projections on NBADraft.net and Danny isn’t even listed there.

    The two sites are also making different guesses about who will stay and who will go. An example–Ryan Anderson, who I think will be a great pro, is the #12 pick in 2009 on NBADraft.net and the second pick of the second round of the 2008 draft on DraftExpress.com.

    Darren Collison is the first player in the second round in the 2009 list on NBADraft.net. I wonder if this is on Lawson’s mind? He and Collison were supposed to be of similar NBA value, and it doesn’t look like another year is improving Collison’s draft prospects according to the prognisticators.

    Hey, how about Nate James joining the coaching staff at Dook? I guess Reddick wasn’t ready to give up on the NBA quite yet to coalesce the most annoying coaches in college basketball history.

  3. wcb22 says:

    I would like to know the draft websites criteria. As far as I can tell, they are totally made up. The last draft I actually paid attention to was 2005, and the draft websites had McCants and May going at the end of the first round. That obviously did not happen.

  4. Section 229 Fan/Scott says:

    THF – as to the last comment on Green going/not going to Orlando, I think at this point we just have to take Danny and his Dad at face value regarding why he entered the draft w/o and agent. I don’t have the exact quote, it’s here on your site though – thank you, but the sentiment was “gain experience, develop a better understanding of the process and what is expected of Danny in draft process”. I think it makes sense, if we assume that a team that has gone deep in the NCAA in the past benefits from the experience the next year then I can see how and why they would want to gain that experience this year without any risk. Next time out it’s for real and any advantage you can get all the better. The media exposure is enough to toast just about anyone, I can’t imagine what it would be like much less to be so young and experience the media circus that sourrounds UNC b-ball.

    I agree with your sentiments on the various drafts and the differences but whenever we are trying to understand what someone else is thinking “you have your work cut out for you.”

  5. DeanForever says:

    wcb22-

    I feel your pain. This folks put together a site and create mock drafts. These mock drafts are rooted in reality, but the end result is nothing more than speculation.

  6. DeanForever says:

    I think at this point we can all live with a 2009 UNC team sans Lawson and Ellington…but we would love to have them back.

  7. Tar Heel Fan says:

    I think at this point we just have to take Danny and his Dad at face value regarding why he entered the draft w/o and agent.

    My problem is I cannot do that. The whole way that was handled makes me nervous and I have observed too many situations where a parent or “family friend” is driving the process which tends to end up with the player making a stupid decision to stay in the draft. I hope like heck I am misreading the situation here but the moment they went maverick from UNC it signaled to me that they were not willing to listen to good advice which Roy undoubtedly gave them.

  8. Josh Bowling says:

    I still think we need one of those wings back.

  9. tarheeler4life says:

    With the look at this mock draft, this reiterates my theory once again.

    Lawson leaving
    Ellington and Green staying.

    BUT THEN AGAIN, WHO THE !?@@$!@$!$ KNOWS!!!!!!!!

  10. william says:

    I don’t see Ellington gaining a whole lot by staying, unless he wants to win a national title. I think he is what he is and I don’t recall many former Tar Heels at his position vastly improving after their second year. Vince Carter and Jerry Stackhouse made huge strides in their second years, but were certainly far ahead of any of our current players in terms of talent. Wayne is more Hubert Davis than Walter Davis and he might as well start getting his time in in the NBA.

    I had originally hope that Wayne might be more of a Vince Carter type player, but he seems to be more of an off-screen shooter. His stats this year were pretty competitive with Rashad McCants’ stats during McCants’ Senior year, although McCants’ was a much better shooter from the floor and had much more of a defensive presence, playing much bigger. I think Wayne is destined to have pretty much an identical NBA career to Hubert Davis: five to ten years in the NBA, with an average around ten points per game. Unless he figures to go significantly higher next year, don’t the economics of the NBA argue for him to go ahead and get his time in?

    With Lawson, however, I think the arguments are stronger to stay. To the extent that loyalty matters, Carolina needs Lawson much more than Ellington. To the extent that he is likely to show himself off much better next year, I think Ty could go in the first half of the draft’s first round next year and probably earn himself more money, as he has the potential to play far better than he did this year, particularly against Louisville and Kansas, which were money games.

    Danny will be back unless he just is tired of college. College isn’t for everyone and some guys are just ready to do something else, which for Danny would be either Europe or the NBA development league. Leaving now is likely to cost Danny money, however, so I still predict that common sense and lucidity will prevail.

  11. DeanForever says:

    I think that someone on this site made the Corey Brewer-Wayne Ellington comparison in terms of NBA stock. One player that comes to mind right now (comparison-wise) is Greg Graham (Indiana player 1990-1993). This comparison is based upon where Wayne is right now and where Greg was as a senior. Graham worked his way up the draft chart by having a stellar senior season in which he averaged around 16 per. He was an excellent free-throw shooter (82%), incredible three-point shooter (57-111/51%), solid defender, and above-average rebounder. He stood at 6’4″ and had a similar, lanky build to Wayne’s. Wayne is close (right now) to where Graham was in ’93. Graham played five years in the NBA with a career PPG avg. of 4.5 (and was a 29% 3pt shooter).

    One other thing, the rap on Greg Graham was that he never developed into the slasher-type (just as folks complain about Ellington), but he had Calbert Cheany on his team, who was a slasher (along the baseline anyway) and was the Wooden Award Winner that year (1993). Again, you can see how this type of profile (for a player) can translate into the NBA (using Greg Graham as the template).

  12. DeanForever says:

    One other comparison (if I may) in regards to Ty Lawson:

    Mateen Cleaves was not Ty Lawson with the basketball, but he wasn’t bad. Lawson is smaller, quicker, and leaner. Cleaves, while at Michigan State, made better in-game decisions (mind you he stayed all four years, winning the title his senior year in 2000), was a far better defender, but struggled with his shot. The reason why I am putting Lawson and Cleaves together has to do with the importance of a player entering the draft (and staying in) at a time when their value has peaked.

    As I had already mentioned, Cleaves was at the peak of his game in 2000, having won the national title and starting all four years under Tom Izzo. He went 14th in the 1st round, which led to him earning a total of $4,042,320 in his first three years in the league (2001-2003). By the 2005-2006 season, Cleaves was playing his way out of the league and earning $305,784.00 in the process. Nonetheless, he is set for life (presumably) after those first three seasons. Had he gone after HIS sophomore season in 1998 (when he made the cover of SI and averaged over 16 PPG) he may have gone in the first round, but probably not 14th.

    My point? Lawson is in the same situation right now. He (at best) is looking at 25 or higher in the draft. Should he stay for another season, play for a title-contender, and stay healthy, he could go top-ten. By going top-ten, he could would get a loaded contract and could expect to be in the league for at least as long as Cleaves.

  13. william says:

    That’s the thing that makes it so much more confusing than it was prior to 1996. Back then, someone who turned out to be only a decent pro like Glenn Robinson, could come out and sign a 100,000,000 contract, and with the rare exceptions of players like Eric Montross or Albert King, who had disappointing senior seasons, there was very little to risk by staying in college. Just look at guys like Kenny Smith, Sam Perkins and Brad Daugherty for UNC and Laettner, Hill and Ferry for Duke.

    Now, the players have to make this difficult calculation regarding time in, deferred income and longevity. How many of us would have stayed in college for four years if someone told us that we would lose one or or two of our peak earning years?

  14. Tar Heel Fan says:

    That is because the NBA model used to be based on drafting known quantities and since has shifted to drafting on potential because everyone is afraid of missing out on the Next MJ or LeBron or Dwayne Wade etc. The age limit was put in place to stop GMs from being so stupid and giving them at least one year of college ball to make better evals.

  15. william says:

    I honestly think that it was the college coaches who also pushed for the rule change because they were tired of spending so much much energy recruiting the JR Smiths and Livingstones of the world and then not even getting them for even one year. I would not be surprised to see them extend it to two years. When you see how little some of these guys like Kwame Brown have done over the years, it probably benefits both the NBA and the college game. For every LeBron and Kobe, there are probably ten Kwame Browns.

  16. DeanForever says:

    William-

    Two names that make me smile:

    Albert King: Not the basketball player, but the blues master. Check out the “Born Under A Bad Sign” album, regardless of your musical taste. I’m sorry friends, but I gotta plug my heroes every once in a while.

    Kwame Brown: Goodness gracious…Kwame Brown. Case in point, drafting on potential is a foolish gamble (by the law of averages). What ever happened to John Bender? I’ve been told that the most successful business people are those who, at some point, had to take big risks in order to be successful. Well, there are a lot of risks in drafting potential over proven worth.

  17. Tar Heel Fan says:

    william,

    But I do not really think the NBA gives a crap what the college coaches think. If it were more beneficial to take the kids out of high school there would no age limit. What happened is the NBA scouts found it exceedingly difficult to figure out just how good a player was based on him playing most of the season against high school players. They basically wanted to make sure they played in college at least one year so they could get a better look. The encouraging thing to me is I think the NBA is realizing that they are better the longer these kids stay in college or at the very least 2 years worth. I am all for the baseball rule: you can go out of HS or you can play 2-3 years in college. And the NBA can curtail some of the bad high school decisions by showing they are only willing to take a very narrow type of player they think is ready and telling players that.

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